While I agree with your thoughts osulldj - I sort of have an opposing theory on the distance subject.

If a horse has not proved itself in the going, over the distance, or at the weight it may be under the true odds of winining.

Trainers are often pressured into running horses in big races by connections who want to see their horse in a Caulfied or Melbourne Cup etc.

When there are doubts - the trainer usually suggests to the jockey about prizemoney available up to 5th place of $95,000 - worthwhile.

I would stick to horses who are proven at the weights, distance etc.

That's not to say Northerly or others can't do it, I'd just rather have my money on something at value that's proven to be up to it in the past.