Here's my Kentucky Derby analysis as posted on a U.S. racing board that my cronies and I argue on: I'm sorry it's so long.

The serious business of finding a Kentucky Derby winner is a tough challenge; so many good horses. I love this race, when else can you get 50-1 on a horse who could beat anything on the grounds at your local racetrack? I'll give it a whirl here:

There are definite qualities, preparation, training, past performance and connections that are almost always present in any KD winner. Let's start handicapping the field the way I like to, by eliminating those who Derby historical stats say have No chance whatever, then reload, and separate the contenders. Since we're seeking the winner only, we will likely later pick up a few throwouts for the win for use in the exotics.

Derby fact #1: No horse since 1882 has won who has had no 2 year old experience. Bye, Greeley's Galaxy.

Derby fact #2: One horse with fewer than 3 prep races has won the Derby since 1949. Bye Coin Silver, High Limit, Flower Alley, Wilko, BELLAMY ROAD, Closing Argument. (that rule kicks ********, doesn't it?) Double eliminated, Greely's Galaxy.

Derby fact #3:No horse has won the Derby that had less than 5 career starts since 1918. Triple elimination : Greely's Galaxy, Double elimination for High Limit, Flower Alley.

Derby fact #4: No horse with more than 4 weeks off has won the Derby since 1955. Bye, Noble Causeway, High Fly. 4 others at exactly 28 days are "iffy", including, Yes, Bellamy road (haha)

Derby Fact #5: No horse running less than a triple digit Beyer figure, save 1, has won the Derby in 20 years. Bye, Sort It Out, Andromedia's Hero, Coin Silver (double ), Flower Alley(3x), Greater Good, Giacomo, Spanish Chestnut, Wilco (2x), Don't Get mad, Buzzard's Bay.


There's more, but we don't even need it. If I got your longshot, well, Don't Get Mad. Let's not be Going Wild; have a big shot of Buzzard's Bay and let's Sort it Out. It's for the Greater Good, whilst I make my Closing Argument. Roger, Wilco? You'd have to be from Greeley's Galaxy and be Andromeda's Hero to not High Fly and bet your High Limit, since protecting your Coin Silver is a Noble Causeway. HAHA.

Now, let's find that winner. Of the survivors, We have Sun King, Afleet Alex, Bandini and Going Wild. Nice, huh? Only 4 of 'em left to uh, Sort It Out. HAHA.

TA Derby rule#1: Look for 100+ Beyer efforts, at ANY distance, as a 2 y.o. Adios, Bandini, Sun King.

TA Derby rule #2 Look for 5 furlong work of 1:00 flat or less in the past 7 days prior to the race. (DoubleX) Sun King, Bandini.

TA Derby Rule #3 Must have a top 4 finish in last prep race, and it must be a major league prep race. Bye Going Wild.

So here we are, only perhaps 1/3 of the winning historical data factors sorted, (I know many more) and we have Afleet Alex winning the Roses on May 7. Like it or not, thats the conclusion of my fair, rational analysis of the race. Afleet Alex has had by far the best prep of any starter in the Derby. The only negative I can find is his lack of a seasoned, name rider, which I'll overlook because: 1. Rose has won his every mount on Afleet Alex, they seem to "fit" each other. 2. Being merely a presser, not a come-from-behind type pace runner, the talent of a major rider (to avoid traffic problems, etc.) is not likely a factor.

Exotic wise, I'd surely use the "Final Four", Afleet Alex on top with Sun King, Bandini and (believe it or not) Going Wild. Additional longshots I like are:Greeley's Galaxy, High Fly, and Wilko.

Use Bellamy Road if you like him, but I won't. He is very likely to "bounce"from his 120 Beyer figure and run up the track, to the sheer amazement of the chalk-eating public. I am advised by powerful sources that a 24 point Beyer increase between races is either the next Triple Crown Winner or, much more likely, a total non-factor due to 3 y.o.s with an over 15 Beyer improvement bouncing. The bigger the increase, the bigger the likelihood of failure. Only 18% run well after a 20-29 point Beyer improvement.


You are now advised; go to the mutual window Saturday and fill your boots with gold.

Regards,

TheAvenger






« Last Edit: Today at 22:14:41 by TheAvenger » Logged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Absolutely nothing is absolutely free.

__________________
There's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear.

Retired or retarded? Much the same. I'm retired...