last saturday at morphetville provided a salutory lesson on the folly of taking short prices about horses unproven at the distance of the race.

in race 2 a 1600 metres race, stylish bow faced the double whammy of stepping up in distance 400 metres and being untried at the trip.....it started odds on and finished a well beaten 4th .......because of her silly price on the tote she pushed the odds out on snippify which i backed ......i had the winnings spent with 100 metres to go, only to be run down by a freakish performance from chic choice........it's never easy is it????

similarly in race 6 candy vale was stepping up 400 metres to 2000 metres for the first time and started at silly odds of $2.10 in a big field....i thought kylikwong was a good thing here and may have got overs on the tote with candy vale's silly price......alas it was not to be as she started pretty short also, and fortunately i saved my money when she got beaten into 2nd.

i find using distance stats to eliminate short priced favourites very useful, unfortunately it still leaves you with the rest of the field to find a winner!