17th May 2005, 01:29 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by La Mer
However, Mordin also quite correctly states, "It has always been true that the higher the weight a horse is being set to carry in a handicap race, the more likely it is to win."
|
Not quite correct.
It is in the handicapper's interest to err on the side of leniency when weighting better runners.
That can easily be seen where in handicaps TAB# n outperforms n+(1..23) in terms of fair share of wins.
However ability at the distance and fitness presumably are not factors in the handicapping equation.
After Makybe Diva's 2003 Melbourne Cup win, she resumed as a 59.5 kg topweight at 16/1 in an unsuitable 8 runner 1400m race, to finish 5th by 10 lengths. |