Originally Posted by La Mer

Ozpunter ... I would disagree with that quote of Woof43, "when the winner crosses the finish line the race is over". The race is only over for the winner and not necessarily for the placegetters.

In at least one race last Saturday, when the winner went over the line the horse that officially finished 3rd was actually in 2nd position with the horse that officially finished 2nd in 3rd position (not by much but it was certainly not in 2nd position at that stage of the race.

The scenario happens on a regular basis where one horse is slowing considerably and another running is finishing on strongly (or appearing to finish strongly).

The other factor which you might not have considered is the affect of weight on racetime.

Don Scott used as a standard the conversion of 1.5kgs (3lbs) to equalling one length, which in turn would equal 0.167 of a second. UK racing professional Nick Mordin believe that the adjustment should be variable dependent on the distance of the race.

I use a variable measurement in my own calculations, as follows:

=((B*2.75)+(W)*(D/2.75))

where B = Beaten Margin; W = Weight Carried; D = Distance of the race; 2.75 which equals one length in metres.

Care should be used when considering weight in this manner, as each horse as its upper and lower limits. That is, once a horse reaches a certain point, its weight carrying ability will be impaired and the more weight it carries above this weight the more the impairment. A good rule of thumb guide is to use the maximum weight a horse has carried to victory (or within one length in races of 1400m or less, two lengths in races at 2000m or less or three lengths in races above 2000m).

Probably more importantly, less weight will definitely not make a horse run faster, as horses have varying degrees of ability and each has its own maximum speed and while more weight will impair its ability to run at that maximum speed, less weight at the very best will only ever allow it to run up to its own maximum speed.

In one of his books, Mordin reveals the results of research he did into the effects of weight, the results of which clearly indicate that it is an overrated factor.

He disclosed four factors in regard to weight:
* Horses carrying a greater weight will be slowed down more than what less weight will speed a horse up;
* Once a horse has dropped down in weight to a certain point, then any further weight reduction will not make it run any faster than what it is capable of doing;
* Horses of a higher class generally weigh more then those of a lower class; and
* Weight affects lower class horses to a greater degree than those of a higher class.

Research carried out in the US would indicate that once the 'average' horse is weighted below 52kgs then additional weight off its back will be of little importance, while once a horse reaches 53.5kgs or more, weight will start to slow a horse down.

Mordin's research disclosed that weight required to slow a horse down by a length is dependent on the distance of the race according to the following scale:
* 1000m - 1.75kgs
* 1200m - 1.5kgs
* 1400m - 1.25kgs
* 1600m - 1kg
* 2000m - 0.8kg
* 2400m - 0.65kg
* 3200m - 0.5kg

However, Mordin also quite correctly states, "It has always been true that the higher the weight a horse is being set to carry in a handicap race, the more likely it is to win."

Another factor is one that Daniel O'Sullivan alluded to and that is the affact of wide running. Horses running wide will cover more ground, thus using more energy. However those running wide when the pace is 'on' will use a greater level of energy than those running wide when the pace is 'off' and wide running is only of real importance around the turns and no so much when running down the straight.