19th May 2005, 04:23 PM
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 130
|
|
This is a sure way to pick winners Glenno but I fear everyone else would see it too and ,consequently,drive the price down to the point where it MIGHT be hard to make it pay. Form at the distance (or thereabouts) is a great indicator but I find most horses so inconsistent that I'm loathe to bet on last-start winners unless........the price is right!!(ie the ones which DO salute make up for all those which let you down). Plus you've got the hassle with deciding on class rises or falls from that last start.
My niece won the 400 at the local school carnival 2 weeks ago but now she's racing Cathy Freeman: should I back her? At evens...no;at 50-1....maybe ;at a million to one....definitely for $1!!!!!
Much as I like these system ideas it's the rigidity that brings most undone.This is not to say that one can't win with a good pricing mechanism factored in as well.Anyhow keep us informed as it makes sense.Good luck and cheers.
|