OzPunter,

before you hope to achieve anything with 200m sectionals you need to get a grasp of final time rating.

That is not easy given that despite considerable effort I have never found any published theories which adequately cover times. Some initially appear plausible but soon my nagging doubts take over.

Consider this conundrum:

In September 1998 Fappiano's Son won his 1st start at VP, then at his 2nd obliterated the 900m track record at Flemington, by ~1 whole second faster than on any day before.

That figure seems almost in the realms of fantasy, suggesting by time he was ~9kg better than any other October 2YO.

Yet in his next start at 8/13 SP he was beaten by 5.8L, and after that lost by 7.7L.

It took him 3 years before his only other win (in an R1), from a total of 27 starts!

This tragedy should illustrate a key factor of time/pace handicapping which published theories have overlooked.

What is that factor? Think a while before answering.