One bad week doesn't make a tragedy. Keep at it...review your analysis after the race and see if there is anything you can learn. What judgements did you make about horses? On what information were they based? Was it reliable information of some educated guess work? How certain or confident were you? What areas were you uncertain about?

It seems to me from this weeks sample that your ratings take a large account of weight. My own experience has led me to believe that weight is a secondary factor. Class, Pace, speed and the trip a horse has have much more impact on the outcome of a race.

I have already posted my thoughts on weight here previously....but basically, weight reductions below 54.5kg's do nothing to speed a horse up. A horse only has a given level of ability or speed, irrespective of how low the weight is that it carries. My work has led me to believe that a horse can perform just as well with 54.5kg's as it can with anything lower.

If I was doing class and weight based ratings I wouldn't give any credit or penalty for weight below 54.5kg's.