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Originally Posted by marcus25
Each to his own I suppose!
But if you get your winners in a clump it should ring a bell! Why is it so?
If your selection method is sound, your strikerate will not vary more then 5% up or down in any reasonable period of betting.
If it does, it means your method works far better on certain types of races or tracks then on others, which should be a great help to you by eliminating the loosing types.
Of course It means a lot of statistical work (boring work at that).
It does not strictly apply to your kind of betting but even there I am sure you could find a reason why a longshot comes in ahead ot the more fancied horses, true sometimes it's just luck but more often then not there is a reason for it.
Good luck to you.
Cheers
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Of course everything can come in clusters. If you have a strike rate of 20% it doesn't mean that in every 5 race block you will have 1 winner.
Personally I believe in keeping on going. I believe I have an edge so why stop. All I would be doing is losing money by stopping. The way I bet is not a day to day thing, it is a continuous series of bets, so some days I will expect to lose money.
The reason I bet, is because I want to make enough money to not have to work. It is because I believe that I can. My objective is to make as much money as possible. Why settle. I do not care about having a high POT. As long as I am returning more than I am risking, then that is all I can hope for. My aim is to return 105-110% on my outlay, so the more I outlay the more I make, the more races I bet on, the more I outlay.
I believe in what I am doing so there is no need to stop.
I would suggest that people who do stop if they reach a certain profit for the day, are really not that confident in their ideas over the long term. What are they scared of? Losing their profit for the day?
I understand that spending all day betting is not an ideal lifestyle, but would people be confident of winning long term if they bet for a certain period of time each day regardless of your profit or loss?