moeee,
Don't want to bother you but I just went and and weighed 2 housebricks, the one with the holes weighed .5 kg and the one without the holes weighed .6 kg, which one do you suggest I use as I know it would make a difference to my performance. I suppose if I used the .5 kg I would be 2/1 and if I used the .6 kg I would be 10/1 according to your theories. THATS how much 1 or 2 kilos would make the difference to a horse. It's the BEST horse on the day that wins the race. How you work that out I don't know, and that's why I bet the way I do.
Money talks, learn to work out what is going on in a race ( if anything and if not leave it alone ).
When you see a 50/1 winner and there is an even money fav everybody jumps up and down BUT I bet the trainer of the 50/1 backed his horse, because he knew what the horse was capable of ON THE DAY.

Cheers and I mean that because I am not as bad as you think.