Generally very little value on the favourites during the early rounds of slams as every man and his dog piles on the 'name' players. I'll therefore be looking to pick a few upsets with a view to making a profit across the selections.

In 2003 and 2004 the bookies favourite won 82 of the 128 First Round matches at Roland Garros. Thus favourites won approx 64% while dogs went 36%.


Krajicek v Hantuchova
Round 1

Both players will ahve to be at their best to win this as my ratings have them evenly matched coming into this game. Clay is Hantuchova's least favourite surface and she's very beatable on the dirt. Krajicek was raised on clay and while inexperienced, she has a 16/5 record and certainly has the game to win. Krajicek also has the advantage of 3 qualifying 'warm-up' wins while Hantuchova hasn't played since a first round loss in Rome. This is closer than the prices suggest so a value play on Krajicek.

Krajicek $2.50 @ generally available. HALF UNIT


Mamic v Raymond
Round 1

I rate Mamic a slight favourite here against the ageing yet very experienced Raymond. Raymond's only had the one game on red this swing - a first round loss at Istanbul - and she has a moderate 40/38 carrer record on the surface. Mamic is a clay specialist, and while a lot of her results have come on the Challenger circuit, she has a 81/35 career record. Raymond is a tough competitor and this is her 40th consecutive Grand Slam so mamic will have to be at her best, but I rate her a 56.2% chance so will take the odds.

Mamic $2.00 @ Bet365. HALF UNIT
(better prices at some smaller bookies)


Fedak v Likhovtseva
Round 1

I rate the ageing Likhovtseva a slight favourite here so the price on Fedak is appealing. Likhovtseva comes into this match in very average form. She's only played 3 games on red this swing - two of which she lost albeit to good players (Smashnova & Pierce). She does have plenty of experience and a 65/56 record but she's more of an all-rounder who prefers it a bit faster. Fedak is a stubborn player who gets a lot of balls back thereby forcing opponents to play a lot of shots. She has a 62/43 record and has quite good recent form. Fedak's a 46.7% chance in my book so I'll take her on price

Fedak $4.23 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


Schruff v Asagoe
Round 1

Asagoe is nothing special on clay and has a 17/20 career record. She comes into this match in ordinary form having lost her first round matches in Strasbourg and Rome. These were her only 2 games on red caly during this swing. Schruff is no world-beater but she has been in good form and has a respectable 75/64 clay record. She beat Myskina in Berlin, and while defending-champion Myskina is in woeful form, this still represents a good result. I rate these two fairly evenly - though a lot of Asagoe's form comes form green clay which is a faster surface. Schruff will have to play well but she's a definite chance.

Schruff $2.75 5Dimes HALF UNIT



Kirilenko v Birnerova
Round 1

Kirilenko is a future star who has been in good form and has a solid 21/12 clay record. She took a set of Henin-H in Berlin so she knows how to play. Birnerova is a basically a Challenger player who came through qualies. She's a clay specialist with a solid 52/35 record but has few wins against Top 50 players. It's rare that I oppose qualifiers in the First round but Kirilenko shouldn't have too much trouble today - she's got plenty of spirit and always plays to win.


Kirilenko $1.32 @ 5Dimes. 1 Unit


NOTES: I wouldn't be in a hurry to back Clijster's in the early rounds until the extent of her knee injury can be gauged. Nor would I be in a hurry to back Davenport (see preview post) as she's first up on red and has been on a break for a few weeks.