spot on chrome, lots of punters send way too much time trying to make sense of what weight changes will do to a horses chances, as i have done, & end up none the wiser.

facts are that if the horse is fit, maintaining its form, & has a bit of luck then a extra kilo or 2 up or down aint going to make much diference to its winning chances.

a much greater factor is, i believe, the class of nags it is now facing.

also after having a quick read of the mentioned book, well looks like a lot of work to me