Davez has had enough, and I'm not surprised!!! When I started all this about weight of horses etc (see POST #6) I had a suspicion it would lead to exasperation as I,once upon a time, falling for the whole ratings hokum, trying to quantify that which is not quantifiable, became exasperated. The more you try to be "scientific" the more imponderables crop up: the more "factors" you discover, the more the variables multiply. As I 've wondered before: did MY horse have a barking dog keep him awake all night prior to that "disappointing run" at Eagle Farm? Was MY "boom colt" thinking of girlies last Spring, instead of races?? Was YOUR jockey dwelling on the breakfast bust-up he'd had with his missus instead of today's pace tactics? Who could possibly know?
The key to it all is to keep it simple. We punters are not working for the astrophysics dept of MIT!! We are not required to have a slide rule,or a complete set of Algorithmic tables, to place a bet!! Ratings are often a waste of time and rarely work at all unless applied with "feeling". But then......... you're better off working on your "feel", in that case.
Having got thus far,the next step is to decide who/what to have a "feel' FOR!! And here I look at the trainers since it is they who place the horse and it is up to them (almost alone) to do it right. They have ALREADY "rated" the horse and decided on where it should be.The "odds" are not really about the horses chances in any given race but, more importantly,are a direct judgement of the trainer's decision to PUT the horse in that race!! So ,all my punting colleagues, here's the clue:Assess the trainer's motives correctly and you're 90% "home" without even doing "the form" at all!!! By, and good punting to all