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Old 25th May 2005, 11:44 AM
BJ BJ is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 479
Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by jaffa
Hi Dingoboy.

As a person who has worked booking dogs for 20 yrs and supply tips for certain dog sites I can help you.

Forget all about any semblance of balance between odds and evens boxes.

At all tracks boex 4,5,6 are the worst performed normally in sprinting races --i.e shorter then 600.

Over the longer distances they still aren't the best boxes due to squeezing at the start but have more time to settle and recover rather then sprint races.


Over the last few years with wider boxes the 5 draw has seen a slight improvement but it still takes a dog with a lot of class ( or ********) to win out of 4 or 6.

I firmly believe in 6 / 7 races on a 10 race program you can leave the 4 or 6 out of any calculations or betting that you do.

You need to look at tracks individually as at some tracks the 7 and 8 have woeful records as races often start on a bend and that puts them wide out from the start and especially vulnerable when dogs run off at first corner due to interferences.

If you stick to 1,2,3 you will back 60% of winners.


Hope that I may have helped you Dingoboy.


Jaffa


I would rather win 1 race in 100 and have it pay 120 -1 than win 60/100 paying an average of $1.50.

My point is that strike rate on its own is irrelevant. The whole thing is strike rate in comparison with odds paid.
How many idiots are out there that back the 1 dog because of its inside draw? This dog is ridiculously overbacked and provides no value.
Just your suggestion to stay away from boxes 4 and 6 says to me that many people think the same. For this reason they become a good betting opportunity.
Let me ask you this. If a dog started from box 4 and was paying $2.5, then I would suggest from box 1 would start at about $1.2. Would you not back it because it was coming from the 4, yet back it at $1.20 from the 1?
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