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Originally Posted by moeee
Refuse to embarass myself any further so shall not post my tips until I get a better handle on it.
But still would like to know,XPTDRIVER,the significance of your ratings.
Is there a margin difference between the 100 rated and,say, a 85 rated animal.
I wish to frame a market.
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Gday mo
A while back I explained how the numbers I use are quite often adjusted because some horses score more than 100 using my ratings methods, and I convert them back to a max figure of 100.. I used to do that to all races but now only do it races where the top rated horse is scoring more than 100.. (thats why quite often a top rater can be way less than 100) A 100 point top rater can be a good thing in my opinion, but that depends a lot on the gap between it and the next best. If i have say a 100 rater then a 50 pointer as 2nd rated chance, I would expect the 100 pointer to be very short indeed.;. Having said that a 70 point top rater can also be a good thing.. it all has to do with what the horse is against... the ratings are comparitive for today's race.. If I have a 100 pointer with an * I think that it is a good thing and "get on" They have a high strike rate but are not at flash odds, but you can do worse than backing them.. I think there was one today and it won
As an aside at the moment I am staking my top selection using the 9/4 staking plan I found on this site.. It has taken a 5% loss on flat stakes and turned it into a 31% profit over about 330 bets.. I will keep playing with it for a while.. although it can break your heart (and bank) Today as an example in the 11 bet cycle I had one winner at odds on, so the last bet becomes 36 units ($360) It was on professional lady at Belmont... they are still looking for that..you then rule a line and start a new cycle and ya know what happens then ofcourse.. the very next bet which is only 2 units wins in Brisbane (come in Spanner) at $7.80, so does the next one at $3.70 (Bella Carona) and the next at $2.90 (scone) But hey thats the punt
A an example below is a priced market for the last in Brisbane (a winning race ofcourse
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BRISBANE RACE 8
1 Come In Spanner 100 $1.74
4 Call Me Victor 52 $7.24
3 Geeteehaycho 44 $9.65
16 Piccawar 40 $13.36
9 Oliver's Magic 38 $17.37
18 Swap 36 $21.72
14 Pop Will 33 $28.95
5 O'mee Boy 32 $43.43
6 Tornado Kid 32 $43.43
10 High Court 31 $43.43
13 Mr Hornblower 31 $43.43
17 Initial Star 30 $43.43
7 Senart 24 $57.91
The 100 rater won at $7.80 (wish it happened like that more often) 10 ran second (TAB Price 19.80) and 3 ran third $3.80 FAV .. As you can see I thought GTHO should have been about 9 or 10$, but was, in my opinion overbet... This is one of the rare times I get it right and the punters (TAB punters) get it wrong, and if you bet to prices you would have picked up a better than 4 X overlay, which isn't too shabby.... in anybody's books