Excellent topic EI.

I agree with your comments on Northerly as I thought a similar thing. Something else I learnt though was that those early races he contested all had slow early pace and it became clear from my own pace and speed figures that Northerly had lost his ability to sit and sprint the way he could in the past. As he has gotten older he has become more dour and is much better suited to a fast pace where he can keep wearing away at a solid speed.

The lesson is that this happens to most horses, as they get older they lose the zip they once had. Evidence Sunline in the George Main, led them in a walk but then couldn't sprint the way she used to and Defier went straight past her. Next start she sets a more solid tempo and maintains it through the race and she is narrowly beaten but nearly breaks the track records and returns a career best performance over 2000m.

I also agree with what you wrtoe about Bel Esprit...and the distance points goes back to a point i made on this forum that in the absence of evidence to the contrary, you are better of to accept the trainers judgement about a horses ability to step up to a certain distance than make a guess yourself. I think Bel Esprit proved this in the Guineas (even though he ran 2nd) and Northerly certainly proved it in the Caulfield Cup.