Morning Moeee! Not sure if you really stopped reading my long-winded post or not,but since you think I'm funny you MUST'VE read just a little further. Anyway, since no-one has refuted my observations on POT being purely an "after the event" calculation ( I too reflect on how much I WOULD"VE won if I'd been betting bigger once I work out MY POT), I'll assume no-one's got the counter-arguement to do so. The more I think about it ,the more it all comes down to whether you ascribe to the idea of winners (or losers) being "due" ( not called the "gambler's ruin" for nothing);that past success ensures future success
What I'm hoping is that someone can clarify for me how to actually USE this historical knowledge (your past POT) in the future. For example,assuming I "know" I make 10% POT per year on about 1000 bets, and on Dec 24 I've only made 8% what am I going to do? Will I bet HUGE because I'm "owed" 2% on my remaining week's turnover or plug away and accept that this year my POT is probably going to be less. On the other hand, if I'm 20% up after 900 races should I hold off before "the rot" sets in (thus taking me back to my normal POT of 10%) or likewise plug on and maybe end up with a much bigger POT than usual. If the answer is PLUG ON then what's the point of KNOWING your POT. This is not a putdown or puton: I'd be happy to get a reply from someone with concrete advice rather than "subtle" insults. Cheers and good luckto all.