G'day Shoto. I fear we're getting a bit bogged down, as basicly I'm not against calculating your POT but wondering, more, how KNOWING your POT is going to HELP your actual income. I keep records and have just worked out POT for 2004, though this is not usually a concern for me. At this point in 2005 (for just over 5 months) I'm considerably ahead on THAT rate,without having modified my selection methods.
After checking the strike rate and average odds I've discovered that the SR is similar but that the higher Odds have made the difference. I am doing NOTHING DIFFERENT, yet (for now) my current POT is magnificently better. On June 30 if I decide to "close the books" and use this "financial" year as my reckoning period (instead of "calendar') thus dramatically "improving" my running 12-month POT, will this be a DELUSION?? Of course I'll recalculate the previous 12-month periods "to be consistent" The POT will remain, as is proper, over MANY races and yet be purely ARBITRARY, a simple book-keeping jiggle. Well?
Finally,a lot of people are claiming that this preoccupation with profitability/POT has nothing to do with increasing your bets (in future) but is simply about "planning". Could someone explain this; if you know you'll bet (roughly) 500 times next year (only on the most "profitable" type of horse) and will make (roughly) 10%, how can you make any more ACTUAL money except by INCREASING the amount you wager??? Cheers,and good luck from (a baffled???) punter57.