G'day Ed

I'll try and answer the questions you pose.

"speed maps, time ratings, actual ability and so on. I believe this information to be much more valuable then if a horse has won more average prizemoney etc"

The things you mention didn't work for me and in my view take up far too much time. My work provided me with a simple template from which to work. I simply have to find which horses meet all the criteria and there is the selection. I reckon it takes me about 45 minutes per race day to work them out. Let me say this....about two thirds of all winners and placegetters are within the top 5 average prizemoney earners.

"mostly with place betting"

I bet on a 1 win x 3 place ratio.

"Above you mentioned that luck in running last start was not important, what i don't know is how you discern this from newspaper archives, you may get the (blocked for a run) comment but without videos how can you observe what impact this had on the result."

I didn't exactly say it isn't important, I think I said that there are other factors that influence the result of a race that are more worthy of consideration.

I did my analysis for this stat via stewards reports. I simply listed all those that raced without luck according to the stewards report then tracked their next race start.

The stewards compile their reports from not only their own observations but from watching race replays and reported incidents from jockeys and trainers. There is no need to watch a replay to look for unlucky runners, it is documented and freely available.

I probably need to explain again that I checked stats over a two year period and then listed the most recurring. I apply these stats to a race field and look for those runners that fit all of the statistical criteria. That then gives me a horse that based on statistical analysis and the balance of probabilities, should go close to winning the race.


"Glad your doing well mate, as you can see i'm not a fan of numerical systems for finding a winner, just think video analysis of races is that much superior because you see an actualisation of events and not take the word of the formguide."

I'm ************ glad I'm doing well too!

It's not really a numerical system just an application of the most relevant statistical data.

I don't take the word of the formguide, I take my own info.

Hope that helps a bit Ed.

Not too many questions guys, my brain hurts and I need to rest it for Saturday! LOL

Cheers

Privateer