depends how long the horse has taken in their prep to win and what ther likely target race was..,i try and work out what the trainer is trying to do..
some horses are working up to a certain race and win a few bonus lead up races it would be crazy to jump off ..especially if they are wining without reaching there peak fitness...
i have no trouble backing up on a winner if it still fills my criteria ...

i think alot of black bookers when watching the videos look for good runs behind the winner...but sometimes the winner is winning very well.and shouldnt be ignored..
Clearview on the weekend is a good example..