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Old 7th June 2005, 10:30 PM
Mr ed Mr ed is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: melbourne
Posts: 721
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Spot on Mav,

I have no problem backing a horse after it has won for me, if it's next race is suitable.

Also agree on the comment about looking for a good run behind the winner, i am guilty of this myself and its even worse when there is a blatanly obvious unlucky runner. Everyone seems to be on them their next start and alot of the time i think they would have been paying more their next start if they actually had of won, e.g Taikun last year in that race Paptong won at Caulfield. In 95% of cases the run of the race has come from the winner but alot of people don't like following them because they feel they've missed the boat.

Privateer, thanks for your answers, just one more. Do you base your order of importance on SR or on Average Price? As a few factors you have left out may well be more important to SR but may be levelled out by the inflated odds you get from these factors occuring (or not). I ask because i don't see how barriers can be so uninfluential (if that's a word) in your selections, to me (in the right circumstances) they make a huge difference to a horses chance of winning, but this might be offset in your data by elevated prices due to these (bad) barriers.

To take this discussion a little further i pledge to anyone who has a database capable of discerning the % winners and there average prices of the half of the field which started from the inside barriers and the half that left from the outside barriers to grace us with this information. And why not a comparison between one of Privateer's crucial criterium, lets say if we do the same with the half of the field with the lowest API (is that right) as opposed to the half with the highest API. I am very interested as i'm sure many others are, even a small sample size would be great.

Just reitterating i'm not having a go at anyone just genuinely interested.

Cheers ED
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