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Originally Posted by Tenacious Spirit
Oh, one thing i would like to add, aimed at one person in particular. Xptdriver, i have been playing around and experimenting with your ratings and i find them a great help. I thought that because you devulge the ratings for free that you may be able to tell me a bit more info about the process you go through to arrive at them. I would understand if you would want to keep them private though.
Thanks
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Gday Ten...
I will try to help if I can... My ratings are derived from using not a lot factors.. I think that basically horses tend to repeat.. obviously that doesn't apply to first starters... so one of the most important factors for me is the horse's abilty at today's distance.. it is also handy if the animal has a like for the today's track.. My ratings sometimes get a bit skewed because I do take into account a horses lifetime performance, that can be dodgy because a horse may have a brilliant performance as a youngster but has done ************ all since... but in the main it tends to find the "class" animal.. what the horse has been doing the last few starts is pretty important, like if it has been getting beaten close up in say an open hcp, then drops back to a class 3 you need to take notice, mind you most other people who can read will have seen that as well... and as they say winning form is good form.. one flag tho...penalise horese trying for 3 wins in a row, statistically they are dodgy, some will win, but not enough to show profit.. quick backups can be a real plus, a deadly combo can be < 10 days and inside barrier 7 or 8 they can be very profitable
The human factors are important.. Jockey and Trainer and also don't underestimate the Jockey/trrainer combo.. Some of the combos are lethal. Example Beadman/O'shea.. exceptionaiall good, but usually no price, so look for others... Robinson/Hawkes... Freeman/Waterhouse, Newnham/Waterhouse, Graham/Prosser Greg Ryan/anyone.. they are a few
All the factors I have mentioned will need to be scored... how you do that is up to you... after all of that you should be left with a number to represent the chance of each horse..
When my ratings get to that stage I have a fair idea of the race.. It;s important to understand that a hores rated on top, is NOT necessarily the horse I think will win... all it is is that the numbers suggest it will win.. Horses with an * near their name are horses I am confident of getting a collect from.. they will never be a flash price but they will be a fairly reliable conveyance..
I have been intentionally vague so as to protect my exact formula, otherwise you and everybody else who tries to do the ratings (who have read this) will come up with the same results, but I hope I have been able to give you some pointers to get you going...
It is very important to remember that ratings are just the author's opinion expressed as a number, they are great for whittling the field down to a reasonable number of chances for the punter to concentrate on..
Hope this ramble helps