Don't forget the TAPE MEASURE, Shoto!! Many of us can run against the wind for a certain time but NOT forever (even Bob Seeger admits that!!!)
I fear you're missing the point again (deliberately?? You stirrer!!).KennyVictor makes a lot of sense at times, but I was (playfully) suggesting that this time he was mistaken in only visiting Belmont (or betting it) in Perth,due to his "stats" there. As there is no mathematical "law" which makes Ascot unplayable (or is there?), why accept defeat? The ONLY excuse would be if there was a certifiable,insurmountable obstacle in your way. For example ... A Horse Conspiracy! (Sorry you didn't accept that to be a little joke,Shoto) Anyway here's a real life example.
I was betting longshots sent to Adelaide from the N.T., one summer. and was having a pretty bad time at Morphettville. My POT (as you might say)was IN THE RED there,though I only saw it as LOSING DAYS (I was oh so ill-informed mathematically). Victoria Park, conversely, was excellent. A lot of figuring left me with 2 possibilities 1) Drop Morphettville, thereby increasing my POT (stop losing, in dailyspeak) immediately, and maybe increase my bets at VP (and Cheltenham as well, since it was O.K.,just not as good as VP) using the money "saved" by avoiding the "losing track". This is essentially KVs solution in Perth,or 2) Find the cause of the problem and continue taking (the delightful) Glenelg Tram to Morphettville, AS USUAL, every few meetings. If I could find the winning way I would continue to have, at least SOME playable races (at M'ville) and consequently keep more TO to put the P in front of.
Opting for solution number 2, I eventually came to the conclusion that a great number of "rank" outsiders (20-1 up to 200-1, even) had one of two major faults: either going flat out too early or else getting well back at the jump before storming home (if!!), too late (not a surprise, since most CONTENDERS are usually "on the pace" types or "leaders but not bolters") At any track, when the leader is running TOO FAST or "pulling" (at 50-1) there is a great chance of it getting tired, regardless of track layout. But, if it's a "slowly away, come-from-behind" type it has a MUCH better chance to COME FROM BEHIND and cause a boilover if it's on the longest suburban straight in Australia (ie VP).That's all: continue betting both sorts of longshot at VP but ONLY the leaders (at 50-1) at M'ville. Not only did my winnings increase still further, but,by refusing to accept the umpire's word (the stats programme, powered by PENTIUM, in this case....that was another little jest,Shoto) to be final, I could win more and still go racing more often than poor KV now does in Perth.
Finally; what surprises me most about POT adherents is that while they all agree it exists (calculated after the fact) very few can agree on it's Practical implementation. Is it the Dog that wags the tail, or the other way round??? Cheers and good punting.