Well the theory i have at the moment is with all things being equal there are several runners with an equal chance of winning. As such the logical thing to do is to ack the longest runner in that group. At the moment yell is in my chances and i very long odds, i might back it tommorow and just stash the ticket and be done with it. Then again i might not bet, I don;t really like guessing which is pretty much what I am doing.