With the final field, weights and barriers sorted out it's time for serious form study. I know some of our forum members can accurately highlight the most likely winners months ahead of the race, and have the courage to back them at higher early prices.

Much has been said about the top 6 horses in the market. As most winners come from that group it's understandable.

Another factor that crops up very regularly is a last winner. Similar to EI's 7day plan. In the cup it goes back to Caulfield Cup day (upto 17 days). Based on this factor we have Media Puzzle, Thong Classic & Requiem. Vinnie Roe's win was too long ago to count. Put the betting market and last start win together we get Media Puzzle.

If Greg Childs was riding Requiem I would of put him down as a serious pick on a good track only. Thong Classic keeps Brett Preble so I place this horse a my serious pick on any track. Currently at 50/1 reasonable value especialy for e/w.

Thats my thoughts and I have put my money on Thong Classic even though Media Puzzle has everything going for him to win. Form, fitness and D. Oliver.