28th June 2005, 07:35 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Mt Tamborine
Posts: 574
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by La Mer
By law the totes can only take out 16% overalll and that's why they sometimes have their so-called sales when they lower the normal take-out rate on certain so-called products. The normal take-outs for win and place is 14.5% while for the trifecta and first fours it is 20%.
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This raises two interesting questions in my mind. Firstly, why does the total at the bottom of the bottom of the virtual formguide "live odds" always total over 117% for the win pool for all tabs and the place pool 360% (120% per place). Is this a bit of acceptable rounding that the Tab is allowed to keep?
Secondly, let's say we as 'informed' punters are ten percent better than the average joe who has a bet. Based on that we might expect to get 10% more out of the pool than average but 15% less because of the take. Therefore we might loose say 5%.
If we bet on the quinella would we be 10% better than the masses on each horse giving us about 20% edge on the herd - less the 15% making us likely to come out 5% ahead? And on trifecta 30% ahead on our selections - less the 20% take giving us a 10% profit?
Maybe we should be betting the exotics.
KV
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