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Quote:

Originally Posted by Bhagwan

I knew that...

Hi Benny,
You have the positive opportunity of refining these selections into a plan of attack so as to create a greater profit here.
Your tipster has had a good run , with a SR of 66% of picking the winner in 3 .
You will see that this will drop down to an average of 45% over time because it is difficult of any tipster to sustain that SR because he is targeting every race .

A couple of ideas to think about .
1)Target only 3 races for each venue say races 4,7,8 only.
These are usually good value races.
If you go over past results , you should find your POT would have stronger just by doing this.
Just for interest , my data program tells me that for some reason , race 4 has had higher value winners than any other race No. based on 20,000 races.
In race 8 , the Fav wins less but pays the highest average div than any other race No. & its loss on turnover is less than any other race No.
Race 7 is the next best for the same reasons as adove.

2) Consider targeting the 2 highest payers of the 3 selections.
That way one is betting 2 horses a race instead of 3 , at good prices.
3) Consider targetting the 2 horses of the 3 , with the best Wt. rating as per TABQ. (100Pters. ect.)
4) Consider using the Neurals std. setting , minus the Time setting (set to 0), to split his first 2 selections only ignoring the 3rd selection.
That way one is betting only one horse per race .
5) Bet 1 or 2% of bank level stakes.

Check this out , I beleive you will increase profits dramaticly by using just one of these ideas .
Put in the homework & see what is revealed.
Remember , Tipsters are not machines , with a guaranteed outcome day in day out , so be prepared for a few bad days in a row .
The damage should be minimised if one restricts their betting to 3 races a venue rather than betting every race.
Or
If one feels one needs more action , delete the first 3 races for any venue , these are usually poor value races with questionable form.
e.g. Maidens, 2YO , lots of first starters & resumers , low divs, ect.

Cheers.

Some good advice there i agree with most of it but imo wouldnt he be better off working out the type of races the tipster performs best in,who's to say this tipster is a good read of the type of race race 4 on the programe usualy is.

Personaly if i was betting 3 horses a race i wouldnt touch a race with less than 10 starters but of course i'd have to check to see how the tipster performs in races with bigger fields.