Top Rank

There is no way you could classify what I do as knowledeable! If this was so, I would be too busy spending my money somewhere to be reading and writing in this forum. It is a hobby, I like numbers, probability, risk etc.

My understanding of Racing is very limited and very narrow. To give an example, I have never looked at form, I wouldn't know where to start. I don't know one jockey from another, and as for trainers, aren't they what you wear on your feet?

To me a race is mathematical or should be. If the handicapper has done his job, every runner in every race is just as likely to win as any other runner. If this isn't so, why bother dumping weight on their backs in the first place?

So, (the purist's aren't going to like this) I see an 8 runner race with 1 selection as a 7/1 chance of winning and start building from there. (Sad eh?)

Now to clarify about form, I said I don't look, not that I don't use it when someone else has rated it. The other bug bear is the pricing, false favourites, emotional money, small pools, big swings in price before jump, even bigger after, fast, good, slow, dead and heavy tracks. It has more variables than marriage and I've been at that 22 years and still can't fathom it out.

Here is a simple question for you. If you're average strike rate at selecting winners is 25% consistently, you have a bank of $500 and you are flat stakes betting. You back only runners that are paying max $3. How long before you have no bank?

Zlotti