2nd July 2005, 02:07 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Mt Tamborine
Posts: 574
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Top Rank
Pricing horses and betting to your own market seems to be a lost art, with not many people devoting much time to it on these forums.
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How very true that is.
I've been working out ratings for NSW for a few months now and previously always struggled with converting them accurately to prices. When the system spits out its results on past data I come out about 3.2% ahead over the last 10 years (30,000 suitable races) just betting on the best horse regardless of price. Now I can price them reasonably accurately I can come out about 12.4% ahead just taking horses which finish with an SP above my rated price (now only 14000 bets). Only theoretical figures admittedly but quite encouraging of the bet when the price is right method.
To quote a famous hook nosed politician - Having said that let me say this:
On and off for about three weeks now I've been trying to use those prices to make (small) bets to try out the system. I'll have the real time odds up and a couple of sets of SP prices and I'm trying to get the best price on my horse provided it is above the price I set. It's taken me a bit of practice but I don't miss many bets now and usually get a reasonable price. But what a pain in the ******** this method of betting is!! Juggling three races, half a dozen screens, cursing because the price has gone down when you thought it was going up, deciding Best Div was going to pay more than fixed price but it dives at the last moment. I don't know if I could be bothered doing all this on a regular basis (although it does seem to be working according to plan). I suppose for some it's the thrill of the chase but I'd prefer a system where you can make the bets after the scratchings then sit back and relax and enjoy the races as they come up.
Anyway, my opionion Top Rank, Sure if you can price your horses accurately you can make more money - I think we all knew that anyway. But I'm working on another system where I can make money with less time staring at a computer screen.
Just read it back and I sound like a right whinger. Sorry about that. I don't hate it that much cause I'm here doing it again today, but I don't think I'd enjoy doing it permanently as a source of income.
Cheers
KV
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