Good afternoon. I'm in the middle of the "putting it to them" (no luck yet unfortunately) and have just zipped into this thread. Laughed out loud at KennyVictor's first post. Quite a few really entertaining people in this forum!!!
Have to disagree with you, Zlotti, however: successful punting is based on psychology and NOT mathematics. Likewise KV, you know my view that ratings are a dead end as,effectively all they tell you is that if the various horses racing around the place had somehow got together IN THE ONE RACE yesterday or on whatever day they ran the times/figure etc that constitute the ratings, we NOW KNOW who would've won ON THAT DAY!!! But what about tomorrow?
Last Saturday Flowerdrum paid $78 on Unitab (66s on course) in MR7. Why did it start so unfancied?? This mare was brought from England where it had 5 wins from 16 starts. It could've been with a mind to breeding BUT since it was being raced then we have to assume that someone thought they would make money with it. John Sadler put in in a 1300 race in April (last place) then a 1400 (2nd last, though it HAD a win in England at this distance). Last Saturday Sadler was still persisting over 1600 metres. Was he certifiably crazy (at those odds!!!!) OR was he telling us to get on? What was in his mind? Well, you might say the horse had "bad form" and Sadler was just being overly "hopeful" (ie irrationally optimistic) or you might say "John's got a plan". Oh, did I mention that Flowerdrum's OTHER 4 wins in England (from 8 starts = 50%!!!!) were over .......1600 metres? Now it's 5 from 9.
I had 11 bets using my method No1 for Flowerdrum, and Atapi ($21 IASbet). I do have a filter which just put Poetic Papal (150s into 70s) out,so I was still a little peeved despite those wins. I have two other angles (methods): one involving trainers placing their horses in the "wrong" race First Up, and the other to do with multiple entries from a trainer. Interesting thing is, for example, that (using 40-1 shots say) these horses win much MORE often than their "mathematically" expected rate. In simple terms not all longshots are the same in the way that every slot IS the same 36-1 chance on a roulette wheel.
Get inside the trainers heads and that's the end of ratings/form study and hours of HARD WORK. Cheers and good luck.
P.S. The last in Adelaide is paying 25s (the only longshot of the day) but I wasn't on it. Must look a little harder!!!