Originally Posted by Sportz

1. West Coast 9 8 1 0 919 692 132.8 32
2. Geelong 9 7 2 0 1034 774 133.6 28
3. Richmond 9 7 2 0 922 806 114.4 28
4. Melbourne 9 6 3 0 958 862 111.1 24
5. Adelaide 9 5 4 0 781 685 114.0 20
6. Sydney 9 5 4 0 714 747 95.6 20
7. Kangaroos 9 5 4 0 777 873 89.0 20
8. Fremantle 9 4 5 0 856 822 104.1 16
9. St Kilda 9 4 5 0 862 838 102.8 16
10. Western Bulldogs 9 4 5 0 931 933 99.8 16
11. Port Adelaide 9 3 5 1 704 823 85.5 14
12. Hawthorn 9 3 6 0 835 819 102.0 12
13. Brisbane 9 3 6 0 801 875 91.5 12
14. Essendon 9 3 6 0 757 895 84.6 12
15. Carlton 9 2 6 1 816 1038 78.6 10
16. Collingwood 9 2 7 0 753 953 79.0 8

Well, after what some thought was an overly pessimistic view of Brisbane's chances pre-season, it looks like I've actually OVER-rated them. They are NO chance of winning and only a slight chance of the 8. All the 'upsets' may help them a little. You might only need 11 wins to get in this year and currently Brisbane are only 4 points and % out of the 8. But they're just not playing well enough! They're on the same number of points as Hawthorn right now and I know which of those 2 sides is looking better.

At this stage, I'd say that the top 4 are all pretty safe as far as the final 8 goes. Risky saying that about Richmond I know, but surely they can win at least 4 or 5 of their last 13. The other 4 spots in the 8 are up for grabs although Adelaide should be fairly confident I think. There are 3 teams I really over rated this year, Port, St Kilda and Carlton. I honestly thought Port and Saints would be top 4 and Carlton top 8. Port and Saints can both bounce back I think, but I very much doubt Carlton can.