XPT. I only back first uppers that are proven first up in previous preparations and they are in what appears to be an open field. eg they have either won or come in a close second or third first up in their two previous preparations. ( Distances 1100 to 1600 only...no first uppers for +1700 metres).


Some horses only seem to have only one or two decent runs in them each prep. A case in point is a country NSW horse (Beautiful Dapper). In the last two preps, this horse has streeted the field and broken the track record each time. Then it flounders for the rest of the prep! Of course .....it won at double figure odds each time first up. I would suspect that these hard runs first up left the Dapper flat. Didn't seem to be ridden hard, so you can't blame the jockey.

I also keep hearing about the second up 'hoodoo'. It is no hoodoo if the horse has been flattened running first up.

As we know, backing a first upper is risky. Sometimes we hear that the trainer has a horse primed for a first up win....but most of the time the trainer seems to be planning to have the horse at peak fitness third or fourth up (maybe second up for sprinters). To complicate things further, the opportunity for the jockey, owners etc to take the opportunity to win prizemoney (particularly on the country circuits)...can throw this theory into complete chaos.


That's a funny thought...all that money going on the first upper when the trainer has the horse in the race only as an early prep warm up. LOL!!!