Can't agree more. I think as punters we say too loosely that "this horse should win" when in really it should lose! Any horse that is not a true 50% winning chance has more chances of winning than losing, so "It should lose."
Re Shakamaker if it was a true $1.90 chance but going around at $1.40 we have the paradox of where saying "It should win" is correct - it has better than a 50% chance of winning, but using Lucky Lil's terminology also saying correctly "It is a lay at those odds of $1.40".