My thoughts are that if Tiger dosent attack the course and come unstuck somewhere along the way and ruin his card .He should win by a few strokes .
If he does capitulate in the scoring dept it will be open to anyone within 5or6 strokes of Olazabal with Jose Maria right in it up to his sun visa even without a Woods collapse...Betfair have the Darren Clarke fairytale at 240/1 or thereabouts to win the tournament so thats where Im gunna put a coupla bob.
The key here is to stay out of trouble.... a good maxim in any game of golf I know but more so here where the bunkers are truly hazards and will nearly always cost you a stroke even the wrong angle on approach can be expensive ....
You probably knew this but in Tigers last win at the home of golf he played 4 rounds without finding the sand traps