
18th July 2005, 09:27 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 43
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Jamcool,
It was never my intention to "slander" Baghwan on this thread or any other.It was not my intention to initiate a slanging bout between you and Kenchar either.If you wanted to cover the 1/2 combo as in Baghwans post it was not,you would have to take 1-2/1-2-3-4-5-6@1 unit=$12.
Quinellas have been my forte for some years now,and contrary to popular belief,there is value in them,BUT the best overlays lie in the 10/1 or less combos!
e.g 6/4 with 4/1 expected divvie is 3.3
6/4 with 5/1 e.d is 4.2
Usually these will pay overs because rank and file punters will not take them,they will take the 6/4 shot with the field hoping for a bolter to run 2nd.
This is where the value lies.What would you rather do?Have $20win on the 6/4 shot and collect $25 if it wins,or have $10 on each quinella combo and stand to make a far greater profit,even if the hotshot runs 2nd?Providing one of the others wins that is.Look at the results on Saturday out of 32 races on the 4 mainland states.The biggest divvie was $120.70,Rosehill R7.
Doomben R8 $86.40.The majority of all other races paid less than $20.
That was my only point in having a dig at Baghwan,the "motza" quins dont happen often enough,and you can bet your gonads when they do you wont be on!
That is also my point about betting to prices.
e.g.
If you took the 6/4 shot coupled with 7 other runners@ $1 cost $7
It wins and the 4/1 runs 2nd,you will lose!
To make money you MUST bet to prices.
Being selective is the first step,aka which races to bet.
The fav as your banker is a good way to go,IF you consider to be a genuine fav,they do win 30% of all races.
The other side of the coin I hear you say?they lose 70%,BUT how many times do they run 2nd?
I tried boxing,it just doesnt work.
As for Kenchar,we are not"buddies"but I used to enjoy reading his posts years back and I have no reason to doubt his claims.I dont see it as big noting or any reason for him to substantiate his claims.I certainly dont think he deserved your vitriolic attack.
As for Baghwan I intend to apologise and talk to him on the other thread.
cheers
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