This probably won't be popular with people who can't help themselves and like to have lots of bets all over the place. But if you want to cut down on bets and increase your strike rate and profit, then you could think about sticking to what I call "Statistical Centainties". By that, I mean matches or events, that going by past results and head to head records, can only really go one way. Each year, there are several games/events that I pick out as 'statistical certainties' and these are the ones I like to concentrate on the most. The thing with these bets is that sometimes the price is quite a bit more than you'd expect. Last night was a good example. The Australian rugby team haven't beaten Sth Africa at Ellis Park since 1963!!! They simply can't win there. Yet, they were favourites and you could get $2.00+ on Sth Africa!!! Why??? As a punter, this was just brilliant value!

Here's some other examples from this year:

AFL - West Coast to beat Brisbane. In recent years, West Coast have totally had the measure of Brisbane. Even when Brisbane were the top team and West Coast were just a fringe top 8 side, they still beat the Lions. This year, the roles are reversed, so why should the Lions win this year? And the Gabba holds no fears for West Coast, so they were just as good a thing to win there as at Subiaco.

R.League - NSW to beat Qld in 2nd S.O.O in Sydney. Qld have NEVER beaten NSW at Stadium Australia. Why should they start this year??? $1.50 was great value. I will continue to back NSW at Stadium Australia until Qld can somehow learn how to win there. Can't see it happening soon.

Wimbledon - Federer to win. Thought he was as close as you're possibly going to get to a certainty in a Grand Slam and the $1.60-$1.65 which was available was a great price. He has proven to be virtually unbeatable on grass and I reckon he will challenge Sampras's record.

Wimbledon - Federer to beat Hewitt. Hewitt simply CAN NOT beat Federer. Roger had won their previous 7 matches, yet there were still some people who thought Hewitt could win this. He was no chance. $1.20 was available before the match and that was a luxury.

British Open - Tiger Woods to finish top10/top5. I wouldn't be so bold as to suggest that Tiger was a certainty to win the event, but he was always going to go close. A first and a second at the two previous majors this year and consistent top 5 form on the PGA tour, playing a course that suited him where he'd won by 8 shots the last time. Sportingbet offered $1.33 on him finishing in the top10 which was a wonderful price, and $1.70-$1.75 was generally available about him making the top5, again great value in my books.

There's been a few other examples that people could look at throughout the year for value. Like Essendon to beat Collingwood. Prior to this year, the Bombers had won 11 of the past 13 matches between the two. Now it's 13 of the past 15.