Hi Kenny, I have enjoyed reading your posts. I'll have to scroll thru this forum to find out what "57" wrote about..sounds interesting...

In the days when I lived in OZ and could therefore get "The Australian" newspaper, the tipsters chart in there was huge and many a longshot winner was tipped by just the one person, and often was their first pick. I used to put that down to inside knowledge.

I suspect that many tipsters dont actually do a lot of serious form analysis. I can vividly recall at least one well known Melbourne identity with a serious social drinking problem who couldnt possibly sit down for even an hour and do form, even if he had the time. Racing 7 days a week and other obligations, and paper deadlines mean that tipsters polls have to be treated with at least a grain of salt. In my day the Best Bets tipsters took their work seriously, but they were hampered by the fact that they had to make their selections several days before race day.

Ive never worked any of my plans my plans around tipsters polls, but I always gained confidence in my selections if my final selection was either, not listed in a tipsters poll at all, or selected to win by only one tipster in a big panel of tipsters.

What I find really interesting is that established and respected Ratings services, (the ones which do serious form analysis), will sometimes come up with a top 3 selection, or even a top rated selection that the other form services do not. It is probably reasonable to assume that particulary form factors for that selection must have been given a higher priority by the ratings service in order for thats election to end up above the others. (aside from the fact that some ratings services add their subjective touch to tweak their final ratings figures and assessed prices.)..I worked alongside one such prominent ratings service man..

As a humous aside, I recall that same friend (his business still operating today I believe ) whose ratings would come over the phone on racedays in code. One Saturday, he gave out his Sydney selections and mistakingly used the wrong code letter for his top rated selection. Fluke of flukes ,those subscribers, completely unaware, who decoded his ratings and duly backed his supposed top selection, were rewarded with a winner at huge odds (probably still the biggest Sydney top rated pick he's ever had)


ye olde bill johnson would probably say that it these hot shot faves are less likley to win because the owners and connections wont get the best price. The bookies too, stand to gain enormously if that horse (obviously a short priced fave) doesn't win..so there is pressure against it winning. How many times does this scenario happen and the gates open and the fave misses the kick ( I'm told by jockeys one of the best ways to pull a horse) runs wide , has a belly full of water, gets the stitch, or gets gets blocked, and loses by a half head?
Does this sound cynical?

What do you punters do when you have a horse that comes up trumps in almost every plan and is top three rated by several ratings services, and is given out as late mail and is the tipsters overall winning selection? Does it make you confident or wary? Does it look a moral or does it look too good to be true? I'd like to read your comments.

All the very best to you

I am really enjoying reading all these posts and learning the different ways you all approach this sport.

All the best
Steve