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Old 26th July 2005, 02:06 PM
punter57 punter57 is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
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Glad you answered so promptly Sportz. And there our paths diverge.
Since the bookies only cheer when unfancied competitors/horses come in (the more unfancied the louder the cheer) because the favs are OVERRATED and OVERBET, then I much prefer to be one of the one's cheering too, by being ON the unfancied one's. After all, if the average bookie is driving his Jag home from the track or office while the average punters (ie fav supporters) are taking the bus, then the bookies must be doing something right. I suspect that "something" is in getting punters to back favs or, alternately, scaring us away completely by making us believe the fav is "unbeatable" (via the odds).
To counter this, I reckon you have to say "These odds are TOO SHORT" at some point and then accept the unmistakable implication that the non-fav is TOO LONG, no matter our "feeling" of discomfort. Whether the horses, sportsbetting, business,the real estate market or the stock exchange, going against the crowd has always been the secret to "extraordinary" profit and will ever be thus. You (or I) will have to be right 25 to 30 times (on favs at $1.40 or $1.50) to equal one Ginepri over Roddick and IF being a minor tourney WAS the key (as you suggest) then why not RUN WITH THAT??? Cheers
P.S. Sportz, we could discuss Sampras getting rolled by Krajicek,or Rafter by Ivanisevic if you prefer more recent. Or Sharapova by V. Williams three weeks ago, if you want MAJOR matches and MAJOR Upsets within "living memory".
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