I don't think tennis is a good sport to bet "statistical certainties anyway. The result totally depends on the form of an individual, and no-one is 100% every match.

I would take the all blacks vs namibia in a world cup for $1.01 though, simply because the all blacks will never lose a match, unless they had several players redcarded. Too much skill and depth (if a couple of players have a bad day it won't make much of a difference). The price would be shorter for this game though.

"Statistical certainties" are one way bookies make their profit. Ok, sure, most of these bets are something silly like $1.05, but bookies use this reasoning to their advantage. They know the public will always overvalue these sorts of trends, and will fade these lines. If that bet is a good bet, it's definately not because of any super statistic. Your've got to look at why that statistic is the way it is, and not just blindly follow the statistic. Once you understand the causes behind a statistic and can judge their influence on the current match, then you can decide whether the bet is value or not.