I do a lot of maidens and i've found that a horse will quite literally get better with every start and work it's way up to a win. The system as follows is designed to take this trait into account.

1. Horse must be at least two runs in from a spell.

2. In the last two or three starts (since spell) the horse must have finished in a consecutively higher position i.e 975, 43, 863 etc.

3. If the horse has had more then 2 starts since spell all it's last 3 runs must be consecutively higher.

4. If 2 horses qualify, back both

5. If more then 2 qualify, leave race alone.

6. Horse/s must be racing in same or lower class then last start, unless they happened to win, then a higher grade is acceptable.

You'll find this throws up some nice collects as well as some shorties, but is an easy system to work out especially using tabonline.com. I am in no way stating this is profitable or viable, just a thought i had.