Hi KV. As before, I reckon the correlation between tote odds and bookie odds is simply this; the shorter the price, the more likely the bookie will be best. Once the price is about 5-2 or shorter with the bagmen, go with THEM. Occasionally you will be wrong (ie one of the TABs will be better) but not often. The reasons are many but the main ones have already been pointed out A) Individual pub/club punters are much less likely to understand "value" or "true odds" etc and will keep putting money on horses even as they fall well below their realistic odds (any price a winner!!!!) so that while bookie bettors have said that "enough is enough" , TAB punters will continue with the lemming-shuffle, dreaming of finally cashing a ticket,regardless of silly ideas like "true" odds. B) If there has been a real "go" with the bookies on a shortie (say 6-4) and the TAB is still showing better (say $3.00) the bookies will quickly plonk the plunge money on the TAB to lay that horse off, and consequently murder the TAB odds C) Ditto internet gamblers and 'bots who/which detect "overs" and scoop the TAB "overs" and D) Any big TAB bet AUTOMATICALLY depresses the odds while the bookies must first accept the bets before doing so (ie a last second $100,000 on a $2.00 TAB shot will immediately push it in but the bookie will still be writing/printing the ticket at 1-1/$2.00 which will remain the STARTING PRICE while the TAB closes in, at $1.50 (say).
The opposite (TAB better over about 3 or 4 to 1 SP) is also easily explained. As all the forces pushing "shorties" in (see above) begin to dominate, longer priced nags MUST blow (MORE THAN 90%!!!) since its a pari-mutuel situation. Cheers
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