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Old 5th August 2005, 03:30 PM
xanadu xanadu is offline
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Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Newcastle, NSW
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Default Is Class The Defining Factor In the Selection Process

Tomorrow, there are a number of "class" horses running. However,at this early stage in my form ananlysis, I have highlighted a number of actions in SR7 that warrant further scrutiny.
In my opinion, there are three "class" horses in this field....
No2 Newton's Ring(currently in very consistent form),
No5 Jovial
No13Men At Work
Not topliners by any means but "class" horses as indicated by their past performances, within their own class capabilities.
A race which I would normally probably not get too involved in except for a number of interesting occurrences:
i) Newton's Ring - G Boss exits as rider although finishing a close second at it's last start;
ii) Jovial - reasonable run last start(I was on it 1x5), apprentice K Fuji, replaced by senior rider, L Cassidy. Older style form students would note that Newton's Rings beat Jovial last start by a neck when they were carrying 56kg & 53 kg respectively. In tomorrow's race, there is only a 0.5kg difference in their weights(56kg & 55.5kg respectively). Presumably, at these weight differentials, Jovial should not be able to match Newton's Rings, however, there have been significant jockey changes and this may be the defining feature in this particular duel. Jockey ratings would suggest that the difference in previous riders, K Fuji-Cassidy(Jovial) -big difference & G Boss-Z Purton(Newton's Rings), relatively less difference, would negate this impact,
iii) Men At Work - a certain jockey, G Boss, relinquishing the ride on Newton's Rings to ride this fellow. My only reservation is the "second-up" syndrome.
So this race gives us some food for thought but these are very good indicators that certain horses are expected to put in respectable runs.
If interested, wager in the ratio of 1x5 and like any race there are no guarantees. However, we are wagering on fit, hard runners, some of whom may have a future. Also, let's not forget...there are a number of other well credentialled runners in this race.NB. the topweight has a 3kg boy onboard so is a "watch and see" proposition.
See how we go.

Cheers.
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