I read with interest an article written in this months edition of PPM by columnist E.J Mimmis about weights.

He was replying to a question which asked how do horses that have been beaten by a certain horse get a significant weight pull in there next meeting but that certain horse still beats it.

His reply was that he thought the bigger the rise in weight from last start the bigger the advantage.

He went on to say "... weight was one of a number of factors that i researched , finding a weight increase a far more positive factor than a weight decrease , as the follwing statistics , which are based on hundreds of thousands of individual horses runs , show:

Horses dropping weight by 3.5kg or more: 6.2% strike rate.

Horses dropping between o.5kg and 3kg:
7.4% strike rate.

Horses carrying the same weight:
7.8% strike rate.

Horses rising in weight between 0.5kg and 3kg:
11% strike rate.

Horses rising in weight by 3.5kg or more:
13.9% strike rate."

I thought those statistics were so unbelievable at first i had to re-read it to make sure i was reading it right.

In my ratings approach i gave horses rising in weight by 2.5kg or more a penalty while giving horses dropping by more then 2.5kg a bonus , i think i will be re-thinking that approach very closely now.

What does everybody else think about those statistics?