I have for a long time now largely discounted the effect of weight and since that time my profit has improved, partially because I believe weight doesn't have the effect people believe, but perhaps more importantly that everyone else still considers it important, which creates windows of value opportunity for me sometimes.

I can support EJ's stats in PPM with my own work from some time ago...which if I present them in the same categories as him show:

(Based on 3 years of NSW/QLD/VIC/SA Metro racing).

* < -3.5kg's = 6.5% SR and -25.5%POT

* -0.5 to -3.5kg's = 8% SR and -22.9%POT

* Carrying the same weight: 8.5% SR and -17.9%POT

* +0.5 to 3.5kg's =11.5% SR and -19.4%POT

* >+3.5kg's = 13.6% SR and -19.7%POT

Statistically speaking, EJ is of course right, a weight increase is a positive statistical factor and a decrease is a negative factor. EJ was answering a specific reader question and did so in an excellent manner but excluding that, these figures about weight change in isolation of other factors add no value to the handicapping process. They do nothing to help us make profit.

In racing, weight change takes place in the context of class changes i.e. easier or more difficult opposition from race to race. The reason then that horses rising in weight win more isn't because extra weight speeds them up, its because more often than not it means they are contesting an easier (or at worst same) level of race as previous. Taking this further, the reason horses higher in the weights win more is purely because they are better than the opposition, not because having a higher weight makes you run better.

So weight cannot be considered in isolation in a handicapping process and I believe anyone who applies penalties or bonuses based on weight changes or amnount carried alone is making a fundamental error in race and horse assessment.

The real issue in racing is whether the horse has the ability to win at the given level of race. If you are assessing weight it must be more in the context of the change in class and the horses ability to compete at that level.

If a horse is dropping in weight, it should not receive a bonus nor an autmoatic penalty because the stats say its a negative factor.

The view we must take is to assess whether the horse has the ability to win at that level of class, if it doesn't, then no amount of weight reduction will help it so why apply a bonus? If it has proven capable of winning at that class with the same or more weight in the past, then why would we apply a penalty for its weight reduction from last run?

If a horse is rising in weight and racing in a much easier class then we might conclude that it certainly has the ability to win and the weight will not be a hinderance. However if the horse is racing in similar class and only just managed to win last time, maybe the increase in weight is enough to bring it back to the field. Why would we apply a bonus in such a situation? Because the stats say a rise in weight is a positive factor and irrespective of other things, an increase in weight somehow magically improves a horses competitive ability in the upcoming race? I don't think so!

As you can see there is no easy answer, it depends on the context of the race and individual horse. That's why those who put faith in the search for statistical answers will in the long run always come up short. Not that I mind :smile:

They're my views anyway, interested in others comments. If time permits I will make another posting that examines class and weight changes when viewed together.