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Old 9th August 2005, 07:40 PM
topsy99 topsy99 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: geeveston
Posts: 702
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i dont differentiate for distance. i know that certain tracks and barriers will give a different result. e.g. moonee valley drawn inside in a lot of races is a disadvantage.
but in my years of punting i have found there is not much money to be made in short odds.
on saturday my winners were media evil master radiant star for valour pinezero
out of that i got a profit. many races i didnt get prices.
some races i got bogged down on the racetab site.

but generally i have a philosophy that (forgive me for this) co-incidence plays a part in backing winners and that any winner is as good as the next winner.

for instance i backed concitaire in the coffs harbor cup last week,
he had been fancied for a few weeks but hadnt delivered.

he drew barrier 12 with a nil weight/margin adjustment so above 12/1 he was value. (paid $19)
i also backed race the ace at hawkesbury they were the only two races i bet in for the whole week.
but based on the above what i am saying is that if i dont get one race i have a good chance of the next at odds.
and i still think their legs get heavier when the price is short.
if i were allowed on the forum to venture an anti-cyclical view and that is that if the dogs are barking it then maybe it is too late to back it.
this thought is based on the view that when the market (stock market ) is featured on the front page of The Economist then sell your shares now.
you probably dont take what i say seriously but that is what i do.
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