29th November 2002, 12:44 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 740
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Quote:
On 2002-11-29 13:21, osulldj wrote:
This leads me to believe that the market "underestimates the importance of class" and therefore overestimates the winning chance of horses racing in harder class. Also implied is an overestimation of the impact of weight, particularly decreases in weight when a horse is rising in class.
While simple statistics by themselves cannot offer us any winning advantage, there is no doubt that as an analysis principle, CLASS is KING. As Pitsburgh Phil said, "show me the man who can class horses correctly, and I will show you the man who can make all the moeny he wants."
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Very good and thorough research osulldj.
It brings home something I have used and considered very important over the years.
Ranking in order of priority
1. Fitness 45%
2. Class 45%
3. Weight 6%
4. Barrier 4%
In other words a fit class horse can usually carry the weight and overcome a bad barrier given that you have a reasonable jockey on board.
A fit horse of lower class will usually beat an unfit horse of higher class.
(By fit - I mean performing to it's best and medically sound. There are class horses racing prone to sore backs, shin-soreness etc. They are race fit but not medically sound).
[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-29 13:48 ]
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