Geelong aren't in great form, so it's risky to back them. However, Melbourne's form is even worse, and Melbourne have lost their last 10 matches at Kardinia Park (Skilled Stadium). They haven't won there since 1988.

If Sydney were playing Brisbane at the SCG, they would be specials. But they're playing at Telstra Stadium instead and I'm not quite as confident about their chances there. Still think they're likely to win though.