betting too much or too often is a problem most punters have and this is caused (i think) by not setting a benchmark for the bet you are about to make.

i must admit i dont over complicate my method but it helps a lot to reduce the activity. it means unless there is some value there no bet is made.

i have always said on this forum that i only backed listed or group horses.

i also said recently that i use the barrier as a guide.

i also use a weight adjustment figure to assist as well.

but in the absence of the weight adjustment figure the margin beaten could be used.

so step one listed horse
step two barrier
step three margin.

the price must exceed the sum total of barrier plus margin.

if it doesnt then no bet.

when giving examples it is often a bit rich to show only the examples that work but to illustrate the argument in race 6 at eagle farm today.

cha cha damour 6+6 = 12 price $13.20
casual chick 3 + 4.7 = 7.7 price was around 12/1

another factor is use is that i multiply the figure by the number of years since qualifying in a listed race. this is because 80% of all horses that are listed or group placed and win a race have qualified in the last 12 months.
this leaves only 20% for over 1 year and this drops to 5% if it is longer than 2 years.

so you can see the need to look for some value from these horses.

in case there is a query of the validity of listed qualifications of some brisbane horses i qualify horses that win the $50,000 races due to lower number of listed and group races in brisbane.
i need starters up there as the racing generally a treat compared to other states.
also sircolo in the first 2 + 1.8 and paid around $6.

this is how backed shania dane on saturday.
the price emphasised the value of the bet won group 3 last start barrier 1 john hawkes. 50/1 fairly tempting.

part of my problem with punting is that i used to know too much class of the horse this horse was better than that. barriers meant nothing.
good form was better than bad form and i believe this to be very true still
but knowing too much puts you off winners rather than on to them.

two or three good things come out of this method
1 . is that I let a lot of horses go due to shorter prices and wide barriers
2. i back recently performed horses more often unless they are long priced.
3. many days there are no bets.
4. i get better prices.
5. also betting on the racetab sites i also miss a lot of races due to the slowness of the site which mostly saves me money.
(couldnt help throwing that in) happened again today. fortunately the horse lost.

but set a benchmark and follow it patiently be prepared to let the races go that you havent measured.

it feels good to watch a race with horses in that you have consciously decided not to back and then watch them lose.

good punting.

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laurie