21st August 2005, 03:53 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,437
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Sahasastar,
Take the profit.
Divide it by the MAXIMUM win dividend.
The higher the number, the more likely to succeed.
16 races is unfortunately a drop in the ocean, you need close to 1,000 to get any clear indication.
If the profit is made up from 1 or 2 winners (based on the above calculation), then relax and take it carefully, it is not likely to succeed.
Here is an example of what I would call likely to succeed.
Selections: 586
Winners: 289
Strike Rate: 49.32%
Profit: $60.60
POT: 10.34%
Average Dividend: $2.24
Maximum Dividend $2.90
20 runners make up the profit based on the maximum win dividend.
The chances of 20 occurrences being a coincidence are very small indeed, over 586 bets.
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