EI,

I take your point and its always nice to find those races where your assessment is different to the market and you turn out to be right.

However I am telling you without doubt (i've done the numbers over more than a hundred thousand horses) that "across all races", the SP market is an extremely accurate predictor of winning chances. If you plot the implied win rate of the starting price and the actual win rate based on ever horse that started at that price, then the curves are exactly the same shape. Of course there is a gap between the two lines because even money chances dont quite win 50% of the time, 2/1 chances don't quite win 33% of the time. There is always a couple of % gap and thats why racing is a negative sums game.

However the fact that I say "on average across all races" the market is the most accurate, means that there must be standard deviation in that average....where the market has it assessed wrong, and thats our chance to be right and make some money.

Good topic!